Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 / Tamynaikos Aliveriou vs Fokikos

Tamynaikos Aliveriou vs Fokikos Statistics & Analysis

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Tamynaikos Aliveriou
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Fokikos Fokikos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tamynaikos Aliveriou Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11669475

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tamynaikos Aliveriou 0–0 Fokikos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 5
  • Fixture: Tamynaikos Aliveriou vs Fokikos
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tamynaikos Aliveriou 1.32 — Fokikos 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Diagoras Agias 3 2 1 0 7
2 Kifissos 2 2 0 0 6
3 Fokikos 2 1 1 0 4
4 A. Schimatari 2 1 1 0 4
5 Karystos 2 1 0 1 3
6 Lamia 1 1 0 0 3
7 Tamynaikos Aliveriou 1 0 1 0 1
8 Katsantonis Agrafon 2 0 1 1 1
9 Nea Artaki 2 0 1 1 1
10 Asteras Stavros 2 0 0 2 0
11 Thiva 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kifissos 2 7 2 +5 6
2 Fokikos 2 3 1 +2 4
3 Karystos 2 3 2 +1 3
4 Diagoras Agias 3 2 0 +2 7
5 A. Schimatari 2 2 1 +1 4
6 Thiva 3 2 8 -6 0
7 Lamia 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Asteras Stavros 2 1 4 -3 0
9 Tamynaikos Aliveriou 1 0 0 0 1
10 Katsantonis Agrafon 2 0 1 -1 1
11 Nea Artaki 2 0 2 -2 1
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Predictions