Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 / Naousa vs Thyella Katsikas

Naousa vs Thyella Katsikas Statistics & Analysis

Naousa Naousa
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Thyella Katsikas Thyella Katsikas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Naousa Naousa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13214541

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Naousa win · Naousa 1–0 Thyella Katsikas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 3
  • Fixture: Naousa vs Thyella Katsikas
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Naousa 1.32 — Thyella Katsikas 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 18, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Makedonikos Siatista 3 2 1 0 7
2 Anagennisi Artas 3 2 1 0 7
3 Veria 2 2 0 0 6
4 Doxa Mascholouriou 3 2 0 1 6
5 Eordaikos 3 1 1 1 4
6 Alexandros Florinas 2 1 0 1 3
7 Kastoria 3 1 0 2 3
8 Naousa 3 1 0 2 3
9 PAS Giannina 2 0 2 0 2
10 Thyella Katsikas 3 0 1 2 1
11 Vatolakkos 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Veria 2 5 0 +5 6
2 Anagennisi Artas 3 5 2 +3 7
3 Makedonikos Siatista 3 4 0 +4 7
4 Alexandros Florinas 2 4 2 +2 3
5 Eordaikos 3 3 2 +1 4
6 Doxa Mascholouriou 3 3 3 0 6
7 Kastoria 3 2 3 -1 3
8 Naousa 3 2 4 -2 3
9 Thyella Katsikas 3 2 6 -4 1
10 PAS Giannina 2 1 1 0 2
11 Vatolakkos 3 0 8 -8 0
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 Predictions