Statistics / Football / Portugal. Taça de Portugal / Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses Statistics & Analysis

Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911
Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lusitano Évora 1911 CF Os Belenenses ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5300566

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CF Os Belenenses win · Lusitano Évora 1911 1–2 CF Os Belenenses
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2) by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2) 37.6 23.2 +14.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.2 +6.3
CF Os Belenenses (1X2) 32.9 53.6 -20.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.8 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.2 +0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.2%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2) 3.88 3.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.87 3.87 0.0
CF Os Belenenses (1X2) 1.68 1.68 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Taça de Portugal
  • Fixture: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Lusitano Évora 1911 1.35 — CF Os Belenenses 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.2% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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