Statistics / Football / Portugal. Taça de Portugal / Académico do Fundão vs Guarda

Académico do Fundão vs Guarda Statistics & Analysis

Académico do Fundão Académico do Fundão
Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.30
6 1.30
xG Accuracy: 19%
Guarda Guarda
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Académico do Fundão Guarda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5300237

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guarda win · Académico do Fundão 0–6 Guarda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Taça de Portugal
  • Fixture: Académico do Fundão vs Guarda
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Académico do Fundão 1.3 — Guarda 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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