Statistics / Football / Gibraltar. Premier Division / Europa vs Magpies

Europa vs Magpies Statistics & Analysis

Europa Europa
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 85%
Magpies Magpies
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Europa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6156902

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Europa 1–1 Magpies
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Europa vs Magpies
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Europa 1.44 — Magpies 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Magpies 5 3 2 0 11
2 St Joseph S Fc 3 3 0 0 9
3 Lincoln Red Imps FC 3 2 1 0 7
4 Mons Calpe 4 2 1 1 7
5 Glacis United 5 2 1 2 7
6 Lions Gibraltar 5 2 1 2 7
7 Europa Point 5 2 1 2 7
8 Europa 5 1 2 2 5
9 College 1975 4 1 1 2 4
10 Hound Dogs 4 0 1 3 1
11 Lynx 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 St Joseph S Fc 3 11 1 +10 9
2 Magpies 5 11 4 +7 11
3 Lions Gibraltar 5 10 11 -1 7
4 Europa Point 5 8 11 -3 7
5 Lincoln Red Imps FC 3 7 1 +6 7
6 Glacis United 5 7 6 +1 7
7 Mons Calpe 4 6 4 +2 7
8 College 1975 4 6 6 0 4
9 Europa 5 6 8 -2 5
10 Hound Dogs 4 3 12 -9 1
11 Lynx 5 2 13 -11 1