Statistics / Football / Bolivia. Copa de la División Profesional / Guabirá vs The Strongest

Guabirá vs The Strongest Statistics & Analysis

Guabirá Guabirá
Oct 08, 2026 - 00:30
2 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
The Strongest The Strongest
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guabirá Guabirá ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12188027

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Guabirá win · Guabirá 2–1 The Strongest
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.66 percentage points on Guabirá (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on The Strongest (1X2) by about 20.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Guabirá (1X2) 35.2 67.2 -32.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 17.9 +11.8
The Strongest (1X2) 35.2 14.9 +20.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on The Strongest (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.9%. The difference — about 20.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: 1xbet br → 888sport

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Guabirá (1X2) 1.29 1.33 -2.7
Draw (1X2) 5.6 5.0 +1.8
The Strongest (1X2) 6.43 6.0 +0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Guabirá; market prices Guabirá instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Guabirá 1.30 xG vs The Strongest 1.30 → Guabirá 35.2%
  • Market: Guabirá ~67.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa de la División Profesional Bolivia. Copa de la División Profesional Predictions