Real Tomayapo vs Real Oruro Statistics & Analysis

Real Tomayapo

Sep 27, 2026 - 23:30

2 1.19

1 1.41

xG Accuracy: 72%

Real Oruro

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Real Oruro Real Tomayapo ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10113129

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Real Tomayapo win · Real Tomayapo 2–1 Real Oruro

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa de la División Profesional
Fixture: Real Tomayapo vs Real Oruro
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Real Tomayapo 1.19 — Real Oruro 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +50.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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