Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo Statistics & Analysis

Independiente Petrolero

Sep 22, 2026 - 00:30

5 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 35%

Real Tomayapo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8986498

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Independiente Petrolero win · Independiente Petrolero 5–1 Real Tomayapo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Copa de la División Profesional
Fixture: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Independiente Petrolero 1.38 — Real Tomayapo 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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