Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí Statistics & Analysis

Real Potosí

Sep 20, 2026 - 00:00

2 1.25

2 1.35

xG Accuracy: 68%

Nacional Potosí

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Nacional Potosí Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8711405

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Real Potosí 2–2 Nacional Potosí

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Copa de la División Profesional
Fixture: Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Real Potosí 1.25 — Nacional Potosí 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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