Trepça Mitrovicë vs FC Besa Peja Statistics & Analysis

Trepça Mitrovicë

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.44

0 1.16

xG Accuracy: 64%

FC Besa Peja

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Trepça Mitrovicë Trepça Mitrovicë ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11249092

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Trepça Mitrovicë win · Trepça Mitrovicë 1–0 FC Besa Peja

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga E Pare
Fixture: Trepça Mitrovicë vs FC Besa Peja
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Trepça Mitrovicë 1.44 — FC Besa Peja 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga E Pare — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	8	5	3	0	18
2	Liria Prizren	7	5	1	1	16
3	Prishtina e Re	8	5	0	3	15
4	Rilindja 1974	8	4	2	2	14
5	Trepça'89	8	3	4	1	13
6	Suhareka	8	3	3	2	12
7	2 Korriku	8	3	2	3	11
8	Trepça Mitrovicë	8	3	2	3	11
9	Ferizaj	8	2	4	2	10
10	Istogu	8	3	1	4	10
11	Vëllaznimi	8	3	1	4	10
12	Vjosa	8	2	3	3	9
13	Kika	8	1	6	1	9
14	Ramiz Sadiku	8	1	5	2	8
15	FC Besa Peja	8	2	2	4	8
16	KF Lepenci	8	1	4	3	7
17	Mitrovica	7	0	4	3	4
18	Tefik Canga	8	0	3	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	8	16	4	+12	18
2	Suhareka	8	15	10	+5	12
3	Prishtina e Re	8	14	10	+4	15
4	Rilindja 1974	8	11	8	+3	14
5	Liria Prizren	7	9	4	+5	16
6	Ferizaj	8	9	5	+4	10
7	Vjosa	8	9	8	+1	9
8	Ramiz Sadiku	8	9	11	-2	8
9	Vëllaznimi	8	9	15	-6	10
10	Trepça'89	8	8	5	+3	13
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	8	7	12	-5	11
12	Istogu	8	7	12	-5	10
13	Tefik Canga	8	7	13	-6	3
14	2 Korriku	8	6	5	+1	11
15	FC Besa Peja	8	6	8	-2	8
16	KF Lepenci	8	6	10	-4	7
17	Mitrovica	7	5	11	-6	4
18	Kika	8	4	6	-2	9