Spelle-Venhaus vs VfL Osnabrück Statistics & Analysis

Spelle-Venhaus

Aug 18, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.21

5 1.39

xG Accuracy: 23%

VfL Osnabrück

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3729223

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result VfL Osnabrück win · Spelle-Venhaus 3–5 VfL Osnabrück

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Spelle-Venhaus vs VfL Osnabrück
Kickoff: 2026-08-18 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 39.7%
xG (showing): Spelle-Venhaus 1.21 — VfL Osnabrück 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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