Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday / DVS 33 Ermelo vs Eemdijk

DVS 33 Ermelo vs Eemdijk Statistics & Analysis

DVS 33 Ermelo DVS 33 Ermelo
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Eemdijk Eemdijk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 DVS 33 Ermelo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13214059

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · DVS 33 Ermelo 2–2 Eemdijk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday
  • Fixture: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Eemdijk
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): DVS 33 Ermelo 1.38 — Eemdijk 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Derde Divisie - Saturday Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VV Scherpenzeel 9 7 1 1 22
1 Noordwijk 9 7 1 1 22
2 SC Genemuiden 9 7 0 2 21
2 FC Lisse 9 7 1 1 22
3 ACV 9 6 2 1 20
3 Rijnvogels 9 6 2 1 20
4 Harkemase Boys 9 6 2 1 20
4 Excelsior Maassluis 9 6 2 1 20
5 Excelsior '31 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zwaluwen 9 5 1 3 16
6 TEC 9 6 1 2 19
6 UDI '19 8 4 2 2 14
7 Sportlust '46 9 4 4 1 16
7 GOES 8 4 2 2 14
8 Purmersteijn 9 4 3 2 15
8 Dongen 8 4 1 3 13
9 Sparta Nijkerk 9 4 2 3 14
9 Blauw Geel 9 3 3 3 12
10 Hoogeveen 9 4 1 4 13
10 Poortugaal 9 4 0 5 12
11 ADO '20 9 4 1 4 13
11 Gemert 9 2 4 3 10
12 Hercules 9 3 1 5 10
12 Roosendaal 9 3 0 6 9
13 DVS 33 Ermelo 9 1 3 5 6
13 UNA 9 1 5 3 8
14 Staphorst 9 1 3 5 6
14 TOGB 9 2 2 5 8
15 Dovo 9 1 2 6 5
15 Vvsb 9 2 1 6 7
16 Eemdijk 8 1 1 6 4
16 Groene Ster 8 1 3 4 6
17 Hollandia 8 0 1 7 1
17 Achilles Veen 9 2 0 7 6
18 SVZW 9 0 1 8 1
18 EVV 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 TEC 9 28 16 +12 19
2 Rijnvogels 9 25 9 +16 20
3 Excelsior '31 9 23 9 +14 19
4 Hoogeveen 9 23 19 +4 13
5 ACV 9 22 9 +13 20
6 SC Genemuiden 9 22 10 +12 21
7 Sparta Nijkerk 9 22 18 +4 14
8 Dongen 8 21 17 +4 13
9 Noordwijk 9 19 2 +17 22
10 Excelsior Maassluis 9 19 9 +10 20
11 ADO '20 9 18 19 -1 13
12 VV Scherpenzeel 9 17 9 +8 22
13 Harkemase Boys 9 17 12 +5 20
14 FC Lisse 9 16 6 +10 22
15 Purmersteijn 9 16 12 +4 15
16 Sportlust '46 9 16 13 +3 16
17 GOES 8 16 17 -1 14
18 Roosendaal 9 15 20 -5 9
19 TOGB 9 15 21 -6 8
20 Hollandia 8 15 27 -12 1
21 UDI '19 8 14 9 +5 14
22 Staphorst 9 14 20 -6 6
23 Blauw Geel 9 13 11 +2 12
24 UNA 9 12 14 -2 8
25 Gemert 9 12 17 -5 10
26 DVS 33 Ermelo 9 12 17 -5 6
27 Hercules 9 12 20 -8 10
28 Groene Ster 8 12 20 -8 6
29 Zwaluwen 9 11 12 -1 16
30 Eemdijk 8 11 28 -17 4
31 Vvsb 9 10 18 -8 7
32 Dovo 9 10 22 -12 5
33 Poortugaal 9 9 13 -4 12
34 SVZW 9 9 27 -18 1
35 Achilles Veen 9 8 20 -12 6
36 EVV 9 8 20 -12 2
Derde Divisie - Saturday Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions