Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday / TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo

TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo Statistics & Analysis

TEC TEC
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.20
4 1.40
xG Accuracy: 23%
DVS 33 Ermelo DVS 33 Ermelo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 DVS 33 Ermelo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7434307

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · TEC 4–4 DVS 33 Ermelo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday
  • Fixture: TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): TEC 1.2 — DVS 33 Ermelo 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Saturday Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ACV 6 5 1 0 16
1 Noordwijk 6 5 1 0 16
2 Harkemase Boys 6 5 1 0 16
2 FC Lisse 6 5 0 1 15
3 SC Genemuiden 6 5 0 1 15
3 Rijnvogels 6 4 2 0 14
4 VV Scherpenzeel 6 5 0 1 15
4 Excelsior Maassluis 6 3 2 1 11
5 Excelsior '31 6 4 1 1 13
5 UDI '19 5 3 1 1 10
6 Sportlust '46 6 3 3 0 12
6 Dongen 5 3 0 2 9
7 Purmersteijn 5 2 2 1 8
7 Poortugaal 6 3 0 3 9
8 Sparta Nijkerk 6 2 2 2 8
8 GOES 5 2 2 1 8
9 TEC 5 2 1 2 7
9 Vvsb 6 2 1 3 7
10 ADO '20 5 2 1 2 7
10 Zwaluwen 6 2 1 3 7
11 Hoogeveen 6 2 1 3 7
11 Gemert 5 1 3 1 6
12 DVS 33 Ermelo 6 1 2 3 5
12 UNA 5 1 3 1 6
13 Dovo 6 1 2 3 5
13 Groene Ster 6 1 3 2 6
14 Hercules 5 1 0 4 3
14 Roosendaal 6 2 0 4 6
15 Staphorst 6 0 3 3 3
15 Blauw Geel 5 1 2 2 5
16 Eemdijk 6 1 0 5 3
16 Achilles Veen 6 1 0 5 3
17 Hollandia 6 0 1 5 1
17 TOGB 6 0 2 4 2
18 SVZW 6 0 1 5 1
18 EVV 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Nijkerk 6 17 14 +3 8
2 Rijnvogels 6 16 6 +10 14
3 Excelsior '31 6 16 6 +10 13
4 ACV 6 15 4 +11 16
5 SC Genemuiden 6 14 4 +10 15
6 Sportlust '46 6 14 9 +5 12
7 Dongen 5 14 12 +2 9
8 Harkemase Boys 6 13 7 +6 16
9 TEC 5 13 12 +1 7
10 Hollandia 6 13 20 -7 1
11 Noordwijk 6 12 0 +12 16
12 Excelsior Maassluis 6 12 5 +7 11
13 Hoogeveen 6 12 13 -1 7
14 FC Lisse 6 11 5 +6 15
15 VV Scherpenzeel 6 11 7 +4 15
16 GOES 5 11 12 -1 8
17 ADO '20 5 10 10 0 7
18 Groene Ster 6 10 13 -3 6
19 UDI '19 5 9 4 +5 10
20 Purmersteijn 5 9 6 +3 8
21 Gemert 5 9 9 0 6
22 DVS 33 Ermelo 6 9 12 -3 5
23 SVZW 6 9 20 -11 1
24 Poortugaal 6 8 6 +2 9
25 UNA 5 8 8 0 6
26 Staphorst 6 8 12 -4 3
27 Dovo 6 8 13 -5 5
28 TOGB 6 8 15 -7 2
29 Blauw Geel 5 7 8 -1 5
30 Vvsb 6 7 10 -3 7
31 Roosendaal 6 7 11 -4 6
32 EVV 6 7 16 -9 1
33 Achilles Veen 6 7 18 -11 3
34 Eemdijk 6 7 19 -12 3
35 Hercules 5 6 16 -10 3
36 Zwaluwen 6 4 9 -5 7
Derde Divisie - Saturday Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions