ACV vs DVS 33 Ermelo Statistics & Analysis

ACV

Aug 29, 2026 - 12:30

1 1.24

1 1.36

xG Accuracy: 85%

DVS 33 Ermelo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 DVS 33 Ermelo Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5132384

Closing Odds 1.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · ACV 1–1 DVS 33 Ermelo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), DVS 33 Ermelo (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on DVS 33 Ermelo (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
ACV (1X2)	32.4	50.1	-17.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.6	+7.0
DVS 33 Ermelo (1X2)	38.0	27.3	+10.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.3	-7.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.7	+7.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on DVS 33 Ermelo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.3%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
ACV (1X2)	1.8	1.8
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
DVS 33 Ermelo (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.7	1.7
Under 2.5 goals	2.1	2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday
Fixture: ACV vs DVS 33 Ermelo
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): ACV 1.24 — DVS 33 Ermelo 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	SC Genemuiden	5	5	0	0	15
1	FC Lisse	5	5	0	0	15
2	ACV	5	4	1	0	13
2	Noordwijk	5	4	1	0	13
3	Harkemase Boys	5	4	1	0	13
3	Dongen	4	3	0	1	9
4	Excelsior '31	5	3	1	1	10
4	Poortugaal	5	3	0	2	9
5	VV Scherpenzeel	4	3	0	1	9
5	Rijnvogels	4	2	2	0	8
6	Sportlust '46	5	2	3	0	9
6	Excelsior Maassluis	5	2	2	1	8
7	Purmersteijn	5	2	2	1	8
7	UDI '19	4	2	1	1	7
8	ADO '20	4	2	1	1	7
8	UNA	4	1	3	0	6
9	TEC	5	2	1	2	7
9	Roosendaal	5	2	0	3	6
10	Hoogeveen	5	2	1	2	7
10	Gemert	5	1	3	1	6
11	Sparta Nijkerk	5	1	2	2	5
11	GOES	4	1	2	1	5
12	Dovo	5	1	2	2	5
12	Blauw Geel	5	1	2	2	5
13	Staphorst	5	0	3	2	3
13	Groene Ster	5	1	2	2	5
14	Eemdijk	5	1	0	4	3
14	Vvsb	5	1	1	3	4
15	Hercules	5	1	0	4	3
15	Zwaluwen	5	1	1	3	4
16	DVS 33 Ermelo	5	0	2	3	2
16	Achilles Veen	5	1	0	4	3
17	Hollandia	5	0	1	4	1
17	TOGB	5	0	2	3	2
18	SVZW	5	0	1	4	1
18	EVV	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SC Genemuiden	5	14	3	+11	15
2	Excelsior '31	5	14	6	+8	10
3	TEC	5	13	12	+1	7
4	Sparta Nijkerk	5	13	14	-1	5
5	ACV	5	12	2	+10	13
6	Dongen	4	12	9	+3	9
7	Sportlust '46	5	12	9	+3	9
8	Hoogeveen	5	12	11	+1	7
9	Hollandia	5	12	18	-6	1
10	FC Lisse	5	11	4	+7	15
11	Rijnvogels	4	11	5	+6	8
12	Harkemase Boys	5	11	6	+5	13
13	ADO '20	4	10	9	+1	7
14	Noordwijk	5	9	0	+9	13
15	Purmersteijn	5	9	6	+3	8
16	VV Scherpenzeel	4	9	7	+2	9
17	Gemert	5	9	9	0	6
18	Groene Ster	5	9	12	-3	5
19	Poortugaal	5	8	5	+3	9
20	GOES	4	8	10	-2	5
21	Dovo	5	8	11	-3	5
22	TOGB	5	8	12	-4	2
23	SVZW	5	8	18	-10	1
24	UNA	4	7	4	+3	6
25	Excelsior Maassluis	5	7	5	+2	8
26	Roosendaal	5	7	6	+1	6
27	Blauw Geel	5	7	8	-1	5
28	DVS 33 Ermelo	5	7	11	-4	2
29	Eemdijk	5	7	15	-8	3
30	Staphorst	5	6	9	-3	3
31	Hercules	5	6	16	-10	3
32	Achilles Veen	5	6	16	-10	3
33	UDI '19	4	5	3	+2	7
34	Vvsb	5	5	9	-4	4
35	EVV	4	5	11	-6	0
36	Zwaluwen	5	3	9	-6	4