Statistics / Football / Iran. Persian Gulf Pro League / ZOB Ahan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak

ZOB Ahan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak Statistics & Analysis

ZOB Ahan ZOB Ahan
Aug 24, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mes Shahr-e Babak Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455947

Closing Odds 3.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · ZOB Ahan 1–1 Mes Shahr-e Babak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
ZOB Ahan (1X2) 34.7 41.0 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.9 -1.2
Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2) 35.6 28.2 +7.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 35.9 +12.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 64.1 -12.3
BTTS Yes 54.5 42.8 +11.7
BTTS No 45.5 57.2 -11.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
ZOB Ahan (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.92 2.92 0.0
Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.52 2.52 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0
BTTS Yes 2.14 2.14 0.0
BTTS No 1.6 1.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persian Gulf Pro League
  • Fixture: ZOB Ahan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): ZOB Ahan 1.29 — Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tractor Sazi 7 5 1 1 16
2 Esteghlal FC 7 4 3 0 15
3 Persepolis FC 6 4 1 1 13
4 Aluminium Arak 6 3 3 0 12
5 Sepahan FC 6 3 1 2 10
6 Gol Gohar 7 3 1 3 10
7 Foolad FC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Paykan 7 2 2 3 8
9 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 2 2 3 8
10 Chadormalu SC 7 2 2 3 8
11 Fajr Sepasi 6 1 4 1 7
12 Malavan 6 2 1 3 7
13 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 1 3 2 6
14 ZOB Ahan 6 1 3 2 6
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 1 3 3 6
16 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 1 2 4 5
17 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 0 5 2 5
18 Sanat Naft 7 0 4 3 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Persepolis FC 6 12 3 +9 13
2 Esteghlal FC 7 9 1 +8 15
3 Tractor Sazi 7 8 1 +7 16
4 Aluminium Arak 6 8 3 +5 12
5 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 8 8 0 6
6 Gol Gohar 7 7 7 0 10
7 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 6 9 -3 5
8 Foolad FC 6 5 3 +2 9
9 Sepahan FC 6 5 4 +1 10
10 Paykan 7 5 6 -1 8
11 Malavan 6 5 8 -3 7
12 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 5 10 -5 5
13 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 4 6 -2 8
14 Chadormalu SC 7 4 9 -5 8
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 4 9 -5 6
16 Fajr Sepasi 6 3 3 0 7
17 ZOB Ahan 6 3 5 -2 6
18 Sanat Naft 7 2 8 -6 4