Statistics / Football / Iran. Persian Gulf Pro League / Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft

Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft Statistics & Analysis

Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi
Aug 19, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Sanat Naft Sanat Naft
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fajr Sepasi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3820135

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Sanat Naft
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fajr Sepasi (1X2), Sanat Naft (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 22.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fajr Sepasi (1X2) 37.0 35.1 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 36.0 -6.5
Sanat Naft (1X2) 33.4 28.9 +4.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 25.9 +22.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 74.2 -22.4
BTTS Yes 54.5 35.2 +19.3
BTTS No 45.5 64.8 -19.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 25.9%. The difference — about 22.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fajr Sepasi (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0
Sanat Naft (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.5 3.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.22 1.22 0.0
BTTS Yes 2.6 2.6 0.0
BTTS No 1.41 1.41 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persian Gulf Pro League
  • Fixture: Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Fajr Sepasi 1.34 — Sanat Naft 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 35.4% · Probability edge: +19.1 pts · Est. EV: +42.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tractor Sazi 7 5 1 1 16
2 Esteghlal FC 7 4 3 0 15
3 Persepolis FC 6 4 1 1 13
4 Aluminium Arak 6 3 3 0 12
5 Sepahan FC 6 3 1 2 10
6 Gol Gohar 7 3 1 3 10
7 Foolad FC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Paykan 7 2 2 3 8
9 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 2 2 3 8
10 Chadormalu SC 7 2 2 3 8
11 Fajr Sepasi 6 1 4 1 7
12 Malavan 6 2 1 3 7
13 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 1 3 2 6
14 ZOB Ahan 6 1 3 2 6
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 1 3 3 6
16 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 1 2 4 5
17 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 0 5 2 5
18 Sanat Naft 7 0 4 3 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Persepolis FC 6 12 3 +9 13
2 Esteghlal FC 7 9 1 +8 15
3 Tractor Sazi 7 8 1 +7 16
4 Aluminium Arak 6 8 3 +5 12
5 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 8 8 0 6
6 Gol Gohar 7 7 7 0 10
7 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 6 9 -3 5
8 Foolad FC 6 5 3 +2 9
9 Sepahan FC 6 5 4 +1 10
10 Paykan 7 5 6 -1 8
11 Malavan 6 5 8 -3 7
12 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 5 10 -5 5
13 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 4 6 -2 8
14 Chadormalu SC 7 4 9 -5 8
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 4 9 -5 6
16 Fajr Sepasi 6 3 3 0 7
17 ZOB Ahan 6 3 5 -2 6
18 Sanat Naft 7 2 8 -6 4