Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / Almansa vs Marchamalo

Almansa vs Marchamalo Statistics & Analysis

Almansa Almansa
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 58%
Marchamalo Marchamalo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almansa Almansa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13241018

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Almansa win · Almansa 3–1 Marchamalo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: Almansa vs Marchamalo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Almansa 1.31 — Marchamalo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 5 5 0 0 15
2 Villarrobledo 5 3 2 0 11
3 Illescas 5 3 2 0 11
4 Torrijos 5 3 2 0 11
5 Toledo 5 3 1 1 10
6 Almansa 6 3 1 2 10
7 Tarancón 6 3 1 2 10
8 CD Villa 5 3 0 2 9
9 Marchamalo 6 2 2 2 8
10 Villacañas 5 2 1 2 7
11 Noblejas 5 2 1 2 7
12 San Clemente 5 1 2 2 5
13 Quintanar del Rey 6 1 2 3 5
14 Socuéllamos 6 0 4 2 4
15 La Solana 5 1 0 4 3
16 Villarrubia 5 0 3 2 3
17 Guadalajara II 6 0 2 4 2
18 Huracán Balazote 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toledo 5 12 6 +6 10
2 Almansa 6 11 6 +5 10
3 Tarancón 6 11 7 +4 10
4 Marchamalo 6 11 10 +1 8
5 Villarrobledo 5 8 1 +7 11
6 Manchego 5 8 2 +6 15
7 Illescas 5 7 3 +4 11
8 Noblejas 5 7 8 -1 7
9 San Clemente 5 7 11 -4 5
10 Torrijos 5 6 2 +4 11
11 CD Villa 5 6 4 +2 9
12 Villacañas 5 6 4 +2 7
13 Quintanar del Rey 6 6 11 -5 5
14 Guadalajara II 6 6 13 -7 2
15 La Solana 5 4 9 -5 3
16 Huracán Balazote 5 4 14 -10 0
17 Socuéllamos 6 3 6 -3 4
18 Villarrubia 5 3 9 -6 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions