Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / Socuéllamos vs Guadalajara II

Socuéllamos vs Guadalajara II Statistics & Analysis

Socuéllamos Socuéllamos
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 68%
Guadalajara II Guadalajara II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Socuéllamos Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11661192

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Socuéllamos 2–2 Guadalajara II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: Socuéllamos vs Guadalajara II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Socuéllamos 1.41 — Guadalajara II 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 4 4 0 0 12
2 Villarrobledo 5 3 2 0 11
3 Illescas 5 3 2 0 11
4 Toledo 5 3 1 1 10
5 Torrijos 4 3 1 0 10
6 Marchamalo 5 2 2 1 8
7 Almansa 4 2 1 1 7
8 Tarancón 5 2 1 2 7
9 Villacañas 5 2 1 2 7
10 Noblejas 5 2 1 2 7
11 CD Villa 4 2 0 2 6
12 Socuéllamos 4 0 3 1 3
13 La Solana 5 1 0 4 3
14 Quintanar del Rey 4 0 2 2 2
15 Villarrubia 4 0 2 2 2
16 San Clemente 4 0 2 2 2
17 Guadalajara II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Huracán Balazote 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toledo 5 12 6 +6 10
2 Marchamalo 5 10 7 +3 8
3 Tarancón 5 10 7 +3 7
4 Villarrobledo 5 8 1 +7 11
5 Almansa 4 8 4 +4 7
6 Manchego 4 7 2 +5 12
7 Illescas 5 7 3 +4 11
8 Noblejas 5 7 8 -1 7
9 Villacañas 5 6 4 +2 7
10 Torrijos 4 5 1 +4 10
11 Quintanar del Rey 4 5 9 -4 2
12 CD Villa 4 4 4 0 6
13 La Solana 5 4 9 -5 3
14 Guadalajara II 4 4 10 -6 1
15 Villarrubia 4 2 8 -6 2
16 San Clemente 4 2 8 -6 2
17 Socuéllamos 4 1 3 -2 3
18 Huracán Balazote 4 1 9 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions