Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / La Solana vs Villarrobledo

La Solana vs Villarrobledo Statistics & Analysis

La Solana La Solana
Oct 03, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Villarrobledo Villarrobledo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Villarrobledo Villarrobledo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11660151

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Villarrobledo win · La Solana 0–1 Villarrobledo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: La Solana vs Villarrobledo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): La Solana 1.22 — Villarrobledo 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 4 4 0 0 12
2 Villarrobledo 5 3 2 0 11
3 Illescas 5 3 2 0 11
4 Toledo 5 3 1 1 10
5 Torrijos 4 3 1 0 10
6 Marchamalo 5 2 2 1 8
7 Almansa 4 2 1 1 7
8 Tarancón 5 2 1 2 7
9 Villacañas 5 2 1 2 7
10 Noblejas 5 2 1 2 7
11 CD Villa 4 2 0 2 6
12 Socuéllamos 4 0 3 1 3
13 La Solana 5 1 0 4 3
14 Quintanar del Rey 4 0 2 2 2
15 Villarrubia 4 0 2 2 2
16 San Clemente 4 0 2 2 2
17 Guadalajara II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Huracán Balazote 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toledo 5 12 6 +6 10
2 Marchamalo 5 10 7 +3 8
3 Tarancón 5 10 7 +3 7
4 Villarrobledo 5 8 1 +7 11
5 Almansa 4 8 4 +4 7
6 Manchego 4 7 2 +5 12
7 Illescas 5 7 3 +4 11
8 Noblejas 5 7 8 -1 7
9 Villacañas 5 6 4 +2 7
10 Torrijos 4 5 1 +4 10
11 Quintanar del Rey 4 5 9 -4 2
12 CD Villa 4 4 4 0 6
13 La Solana 5 4 9 -5 3
14 Guadalajara II 4 4 10 -6 1
15 Villarrubia 4 2 8 -6 2
16 San Clemente 4 2 8 -6 2
17 Socuéllamos 4 1 3 -2 3
18 Huracán Balazote 4 1 9 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions