Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / Noblejas vs Almansa

Noblejas vs Almansa Statistics & Analysis

Noblejas Noblejas
Sep 05, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 52%
Almansa Almansa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almansa Noblejas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6369237

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Noblejas win · Noblejas 3–2 Almansa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: Noblejas vs Almansa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Noblejas 1.2 — Almansa 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 3 3 0 0 9
2 Marchamalo 3 2 1 0 7
3 Noblejas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Torrijos 3 2 1 0 7
5 Tarancón 4 2 0 2 6
6 Villarrobledo 3 1 2 0 5
7 Illescas 3 1 2 0 5
8 Almansa 3 1 1 1 4
9 Toledo 3 1 1 1 4
10 Villacañas 3 1 1 1 4
11 La Solana 3 1 0 2 3
12 Socuéllamos 3 0 3 0 3
13 CD Villa 3 1 0 2 3
14 Quintanar del Rey 3 0 2 1 2
15 Villarrubia 3 0 2 1 2
16 San Clemente 3 0 2 1 2
17 Guadalajara II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarancón 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Marchamalo 3 6 2 +4 7
3 Noblejas 3 6 4 +2 7
4 Toledo 3 6 5 +1 4
5 Villarrobledo 3 5 1 +4 5
6 Almansa 3 5 3 +2 4
7 Quintanar del Rey 3 5 7 -2 2
8 Manchego 3 4 0 +4 9
9 La Solana 3 4 4 0 3
10 Guadalajara II 4 4 10 -6 1
11 Torrijos 3 3 1 +2 7
12 Illescas 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Villacañas 3 3 2 +1 4
14 CD Villa 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Villarrubia 3 2 6 -4 2
16 San Clemente 3 2 6 -4 2
17 Socuéllamos 3 1 1 0 3
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 6 -6 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions