Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / La Solana vs Manchego

La Solana vs Manchego Statistics & Analysis

La Solana La Solana
Sep 05, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.12
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 64%
Manchego Manchego
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Manchego Manchego ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6325476

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Manchego win · La Solana 0–1 Manchego
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: La Solana vs Manchego
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): La Solana 1.12 — Manchego 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 3 3 0 0 9
2 Marchamalo 3 2 1 0 7
3 Noblejas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Torrijos 3 2 1 0 7
5 Tarancón 4 2 0 2 6
6 Villarrobledo 3 1 2 0 5
7 Illescas 3 1 2 0 5
8 Almansa 3 1 1 1 4
9 Toledo 3 1 1 1 4
10 Villacañas 3 1 1 1 4
11 La Solana 3 1 0 2 3
12 Socuéllamos 3 0 3 0 3
13 CD Villa 3 1 0 2 3
14 Quintanar del Rey 3 0 2 1 2
15 Villarrubia 3 0 2 1 2
16 San Clemente 3 0 2 1 2
17 Guadalajara II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarancón 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Marchamalo 3 6 2 +4 7
3 Noblejas 3 6 4 +2 7
4 Toledo 3 6 5 +1 4
5 Villarrobledo 3 5 1 +4 5
6 Almansa 3 5 3 +2 4
7 Quintanar del Rey 3 5 7 -2 2
8 Manchego 3 4 0 +4 9
9 La Solana 3 4 4 0 3
10 Guadalajara II 4 4 10 -6 1
11 Torrijos 3 3 1 +2 7
12 Illescas 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Villacañas 3 3 2 +1 4
14 CD Villa 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Villarrubia 3 2 6 -4 2
16 San Clemente 3 2 6 -4 2
17 Socuéllamos 3 1 1 0 3
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 6 -6 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions