Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Robres vs Cuarte

Prediction Audit: Robres vs Cuarte Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Robres Robres
Oct 18, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.09
2 1.51
xG Accuracy: 68%
Cuarte Cuarte

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cuarte Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Cuarte attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 18, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Oct 12, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15153730

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Robres 2–2 Cuarte
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Robres vs Cuarte
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-18 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
  • xG (showing): Robres 1.09 — Cuarte 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Zaragoza II 10 7 2 1 23
2 Ejea 10 6 2 2 20
3 Cuarte 10 5 3 2 18
4 Brea 10 5 3 2 18
5 La Almunia 10 5 1 4 16
6 Caspe 10 3 6 1 15
7 Atlético Monzón 10 4 3 3 15
8 Huesca II 10 3 5 2 14
9 Binéfar 10 3 4 3 13
10 CD Sietamo 10 3 4 3 13
11 Épila 10 3 3 4 12
12 Almudévar 10 3 3 4 12
13 Fraga 10 3 3 4 12
14 Andorra CF 10 3 3 4 12
15 Illueca 10 3 2 5 11
16 CDJ Tamarite 10 3 0 7 9
17 Robres 10 0 5 5 5
18 Belchite 97 10 0 4 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Zaragoza II 10 22 8 +14 23
2 Cuarte 10 20 12 +8 18
3 Binéfar 10 18 17 +1 13
4 Ejea 10 17 11 +6 20
5 Caspe 10 17 13 +4 15
6 La Almunia 10 15 13 +2 16
7 CD Sietamo 10 15 14 +1 13
8 CDJ Tamarite 10 15 23 -8 9
9 Atlético Monzón 10 14 17 -3 15
10 Brea 10 13 5 +8 18
11 Épila 10 12 12 0 12
12 Illueca 10 11 14 -3 11
13 Andorra CF 10 11 16 -5 12
14 Robres 10 10 20 -10 5
15 Huesca II 10 9 7 +2 14
16 Almudévar 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Fraga 10 9 10 -1 12
18 Belchite 97 10 6 21 -15 4
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Predictions