Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Atlético Monzón vs Huesca II

Atlético Monzón vs Huesca II Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Monzón Atlético Monzón
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 60%
Huesca II Huesca II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlético Monzón Atlético Monzón ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11682572

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Monzón win · Atlético Monzón 2–0 Huesca II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Atlético Monzón vs Huesca II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Monzón 1.38 — Huesca II 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Zaragoza II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Ejea 4 3 0 1 9
3 Brea 4 2 2 0 8
4 Fraga 4 2 2 0 8
5 Binéfar 5 2 1 2 7
6 La Almunia 4 2 1 1 7
7 Épila 4 2 1 1 7
8 Atlético Monzón 4 2 1 1 7
9 Cuarte 4 2 0 2 6
10 Almudévar 4 2 0 2 6
11 Huesca II 4 1 3 0 6
12 CDJ Tamarite 4 2 0 2 6
13 Caspe 4 1 2 1 5
14 Andorra CF 4 1 1 2 4
15 Illueca 4 1 0 3 3
16 CD Sietamo 4 0 1 3 1
17 Robres 5 0 1 4 1
18 Belchite 97 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Binéfar 5 11 10 +1 7
2 Real Zaragoza II 4 9 2 +7 10
3 Brea 4 8 2 +6 8
4 Cuarte 4 8 5 +3 6
5 Almudévar 4 7 5 +2 6
6 La Almunia 4 7 6 +1 7
7 CDJ Tamarite 4 7 7 0 6
8 Ejea 4 6 3 +3 9
9 Caspe 4 6 4 +2 5
10 Atlético Monzón 4 6 7 -1 7
11 Robres 5 6 13 -7 1
12 Fraga 4 5 2 +3 8
13 Épila 4 5 4 +1 7
14 Huesca II 4 4 3 +1 6
15 CD Sietamo 4 4 10 -6 1
16 Andorra CF 4 3 7 -4 4
17 Illueca 4 3 7 -4 3
18 Belchite 97 4 2 10 -8 1