Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Huesca II vs Fraga

Huesca II vs Fraga Statistics & Analysis

Huesca II Huesca II
Sep 26, 2026 - 10:15
0 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 49%
Fraga Fraga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Huesca II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10079076

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Huesca II 0–0 Fraga
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Huesca II vs Fraga
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Huesca II 1.44 — Fraga 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fraga 4 2 2 0 8
2 Real Zaragoza II 3 2 1 0 7
3 Épila 3 2 1 0 7
4 Atlético Monzón 4 2 1 1 7
5 Cuarte 3 2 0 1 6
6 Almudévar 4 2 0 2 6
7 Ejea 3 2 0 1 6
8 Huesca II 4 1 3 0 6
9 Brea 3 1 2 0 5
10 Caspe 3 1 1 1 4
11 La Almunia 3 1 1 1 4
12 Andorra CF 3 1 1 1 4
13 Binéfar 3 1 0 2 3
14 CDJ Tamarite 3 1 0 2 3
15 Robres 3 0 1 2 1
16 CD Sietamo 3 0 1 2 1
17 Belchite 97 3 0 1 2 1
18 Illueca 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cuarte 3 7 3 +4 6
2 Almudévar 4 7 5 +2 6
3 Binéfar 3 7 7 0 3
4 Atlético Monzón 4 6 7 -1 7
5 Fraga 4 5 2 +3 8
6 Real Zaragoza II 3 5 2 +3 7
7 Brea 3 5 2 +3 5
8 CDJ Tamarite 3 5 6 -1 3
9 Robres 3 5 7 -2 1
10 Épila 3 4 1 +3 7
11 Ejea 3 4 2 +2 6
12 Caspe 3 4 2 +2 4
13 Huesca II 4 4 3 +1 6
14 La Almunia 3 4 5 -1 4
15 Andorra CF 3 3 4 -1 4
16 CD Sietamo 3 3 8 -5 1
17 Belchite 97 3 2 7 -5 1
18 Illueca 3 0 7 -7 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Predictions