Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Robres vs Fraga

Robres vs Fraga Statistics & Analysis

Robres Robres
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Fraga Fraga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Robres Fraga ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322118

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fraga win · Robres 1–2 Fraga
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Robres vs Fraga
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Robres 1.32 — Fraga 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Zaragoza II 3 2 1 0 7
2 Fraga 3 2 1 0 7
3 Épila 3 2 1 0 7
4 Cuarte 3 2 0 1 6
5 Almudévar 3 2 0 1 6
6 Ejea 3 2 0 1 6
7 Brea 3 1 2 0 5
8 Huesca II 3 1 2 0 5
9 Caspe 3 1 1 1 4
10 La Almunia 3 1 1 1 4
11 Andorra CF 3 1 1 1 4
12 Atlético Monzón 3 1 1 1 4
13 Binéfar 3 1 0 2 3
14 CDJ Tamarite 3 1 0 2 3
15 Robres 3 0 1 2 1
16 CD Sietamo 3 0 1 2 1
17 Belchite 97 3 0 1 2 1
18 Illueca 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cuarte 3 7 3 +4 6
2 Binéfar 3 7 7 0 3
3 Almudévar 3 6 3 +3 6
4 Real Zaragoza II 3 5 2 +3 7
5 Fraga 3 5 2 +3 7
6 Brea 3 5 2 +3 5
7 CDJ Tamarite 3 5 6 -1 3
8 Robres 3 5 7 -2 1
9 Épila 3 4 1 +3 7
10 Ejea 3 4 2 +2 6
11 Caspe 3 4 2 +2 4
12 Huesca II 3 4 3 +1 5
13 La Almunia 3 4 5 -1 4
14 Atlético Monzón 3 4 6 -2 4
15 Andorra CF 3 3 4 -1 4
16 CD Sietamo 3 3 8 -5 1
17 Belchite 97 3 2 7 -5 1
18 Illueca 3 0 7 -7 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Predictions