Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Almudévar vs Ejea

Almudévar vs Ejea Statistics & Analysis

Almudévar Almudévar
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ejea Ejea
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Almudévar Almudévar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6364474

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Almudévar win · Almudévar 1–0 Ejea
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Almudévar vs Ejea
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Almudévar 1.3 — Ejea 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brea 2 1 1 0 4
2 Épila 2 1 1 0 4
3 Caspe 1 1 0 0 3
4 Binéfar 1 1 0 0 3
5 Cuarte 1 1 0 0 3
6 Real Zaragoza II 1 1 0 0 3
7 Fraga 1 1 0 0 3
8 Almudévar 1 1 0 0 3
9 La Almunia 1 0 1 0 1
10 Huesca II 1 0 1 0 1
11 Belchite 97 1 0 1 0 1
12 Andorra CF 2 0 1 1 1
13 Robres 1 0 0 1 0
14 CDJ Tamarite 1 0 0 1 0
15 Ejea 1 0 0 1 0
16 CD Sietamo 1 0 0 1 0
17 Atlético Monzón 1 0 0 1 0
18 Illueca 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brea 2 4 1 +3 4
2 Binéfar 1 4 2 +2 3
3 Caspe 1 3 0 +3 3
4 Épila 2 2 0 +2 4
5 Cuarte 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Real Zaragoza II 1 2 1 +1 3
7 Fraga 1 2 1 +1 3
8 La Almunia 1 2 2 0 1
9 Huesca II 1 2 2 0 1
10 Andorra CF 2 2 4 -2 1
11 Almudévar 1 1 0 +1 3
12 Belchite 97 1 1 1 0 1
13 Robres 1 1 2 -1 0
14 CDJ Tamarite 1 1 2 -1 0
15 Ejea 1 0 1 -1 0
16 CD Sietamo 1 0 2 -2 0
17 Atlético Monzón 1 0 3 -3 0
18 Illueca 2 0 5 -5 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Predictions