Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / Alfaro vs Calahorra

Alfaro vs Calahorra Statistics & Analysis

Alfaro Alfaro
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.15
1 1.45
xG Accuracy: 70%
Calahorra Calahorra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Calahorra Alfaro ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11680432

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alfaro win · Alfaro 2–1 Calahorra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
  • Fixture: Alfaro vs Calahorra
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Alfaro 1.15 — Calahorra 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haro Deportivo 4 3 1 0 10
2 Calahorra 4 3 0 1 9
3 Berceo 4 3 0 1 9
4 La Calzada 4 3 0 1 9
5 Pradejón 4 2 1 1 7
6 Alfaro 4 2 1 1 7
7 Varea 4 1 3 0 6
8 Yagüe 5 2 0 3 6
9 Agoncillo 4 1 2 1 5
10 Anguiano 4 1 2 1 5
11 San Marcial 4 1 2 1 5
12 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 5
13 Comillas 4 1 2 1 5
14 Oyonesa 4 1 1 2 4
15 Casalarreina 4 1 0 3 3
16 River Ebro 4 1 0 3 3
17 Calasancio 4 0 2 2 2
18 Vianés 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Calahorra 4 13 5 +8 9
2 Berceo 4 12 4 +8 9
3 Haro Deportivo 4 10 5 +5 10
4 Agoncillo 4 10 8 +2 5
5 La Calzada 4 8 4 +4 9
6 Alfaro 4 7 6 +1 7
7 Pradejón 4 6 4 +2 7
8 Cenicero 5 6 7 -1 5
9 Yagüe 5 5 8 -3 6
10 Vianés 4 5 8 -3 1
11 Calasancio 4 5 11 -6 2
12 Anguiano 4 4 4 0 5
13 Oyonesa 4 4 6 -2 4
14 River Ebro 4 4 12 -8 3
15 Varea 4 3 2 +1 6
16 San Marcial 4 3 3 0 5
17 Comillas 4 3 4 -1 5
18 Casalarreina 4 3 10 -7 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions