Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / Calahorra vs Calasancio

Calahorra vs Calasancio Statistics & Analysis

Calahorra Calahorra
Sep 27, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 28%
Calasancio Calasancio
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Calahorra Calahorra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101711

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Calahorra win · Calahorra 5–0 Calasancio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
  • Fixture: Calahorra vs Calasancio
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Calahorra 1.49 — Calasancio 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Calahorra & Calasancio!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Calzada 3 3 0 0 9
2 Haro Deportivo 3 2 1 0 7
3 Berceo 3 2 0 1 6
4 Calahorra 3 2 0 1 6
5 Agoncillo 4 1 2 1 5
6 Anguiano 3 1 2 0 5
7 Comillas 3 1 2 0 5
8 San Marcial 3 1 2 0 5
9 Cenicero 4 1 2 1 5
10 Alfaro 3 1 1 1 4
11 Pradejón 3 1 1 1 4
12 Varea 3 0 3 0 3
13 Yagüe 3 1 0 2 3
14 Oyonesa 3 1 0 2 3
15 Casalarreina 4 1 0 3 3
16 River Ebro 4 1 0 3 3
17 Calasancio 3 0 2 1 2
18 Vianés 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Berceo 3 10 3 +7 6
2 Agoncillo 4 10 8 +2 5
3 La Calzada 3 8 3 +5 9
4 Calahorra 3 8 5 +3 6
5 Haro Deportivo 3 7 5 +2 7
6 Cenicero 4 5 5 0 5
7 Alfaro 3 5 5 0 4
8 Calasancio 3 5 6 -1 2
9 Pradejón 3 4 4 0 4
10 River Ebro 4 4 12 -8 3
11 Anguiano 3 3 2 +1 5
12 Comillas 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Yagüe 3 3 4 -1 3
14 Vianés 3 3 6 -3 0
15 Casalarreina 4 3 10 -7 3
16 San Marcial 3 2 1 +1 5
17 Varea 3 2 2 0 3
18 Oyonesa 3 2 4 -2 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions