Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / San Marcial vs Comillas

San Marcial vs Comillas Statistics & Analysis

San Marcial San Marcial
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Comillas Comillas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Marcial Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 08:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8737253

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · San Marcial 1–1 Comillas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
  • Fixture: San Marcial vs Comillas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): San Marcial 1.32 — Comillas 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Calzada 3 3 0 0 9
2 Haro Deportivo 3 2 1 0 7
3 Berceo 3 2 0 1 6
4 Calahorra 3 2 0 1 6
5 Agoncillo 4 1 2 1 5
6 Anguiano 3 1 2 0 5
7 Comillas 3 1 2 0 5
8 San Marcial 3 1 2 0 5
9 Cenicero 4 1 2 1 5
10 Alfaro 3 1 1 1 4
11 Pradejón 3 1 1 1 4
12 Varea 3 0 3 0 3
13 Yagüe 3 1 0 2 3
14 Oyonesa 3 1 0 2 3
15 Casalarreina 4 1 0 3 3
16 River Ebro 4 1 0 3 3
17 Calasancio 3 0 2 1 2
18 Vianés 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Berceo 3 10 3 +7 6
2 Agoncillo 4 10 8 +2 5
3 La Calzada 3 8 3 +5 9
4 Calahorra 3 8 5 +3 6
5 Haro Deportivo 3 7 5 +2 7
6 Cenicero 4 5 5 0 5
7 Alfaro 3 5 5 0 4
8 Calasancio 3 5 6 -1 2
9 Pradejón 3 4 4 0 4
10 River Ebro 4 4 12 -8 3
11 Anguiano 3 3 2 +1 5
12 Comillas 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Yagüe 3 3 4 -1 3
14 Vianés 3 3 6 -3 0
15 Casalarreina 4 3 10 -7 3
16 San Marcial 3 2 1 +1 5
17 Varea 3 2 2 0 3
18 Oyonesa 3 2 4 -2 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions