Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 / Pradejón vs Varea

Pradejón vs Varea Statistics & Analysis

Pradejón Pradejón
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.14
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 85%
Varea Varea
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Varea Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8686064

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pradejón 1–1 Varea
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
  • Fixture: Pradejón vs Varea
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Pradejón 1.14 — Varea 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Berceo 2 2 0 0 6
2 La Calzada 2 2 0 0 6
3 Calahorra 3 2 0 1 6
4 Anguiano 3 1 2 0 5
5 Comillas 3 1 2 0 5
6 San Marcial 3 1 2 0 5
7 Haro Deportivo 2 1 1 0 4
8 Alfaro 2 1 1 0 4
9 Pradejón 2 1 0 1 3
10 Yagüe 3 1 0 2 3
11 Oyonesa 3 1 0 2 3
12 Casalarreina 3 1 0 2 3
13 Varea 2 0 2 0 2
14 Cenicero 2 0 2 0 2
15 Calasancio 3 0 2 1 2
16 Agoncillo 3 0 2 1 2
17 Vianés 2 0 0 2 0
18 River Ebro 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Berceo 2 9 1 +8 6
2 Calahorra 3 8 5 +3 6
3 La Calzada 2 5 1 +4 6
4 Haro Deportivo 2 5 4 +1 4
5 Calasancio 3 5 6 -1 2
6 Agoncillo 3 5 7 -2 2
7 Alfaro 2 4 3 +1 4
8 Anguiano 3 3 2 +1 5
9 Comillas 3 3 2 +1 5
10 Pradejón 2 3 3 0 3
11 Yagüe 3 3 4 -1 3
12 San Marcial 3 2 1 +1 5
13 Oyonesa 3 2 4 -2 3
14 Casalarreina 3 2 5 -3 3
15 Varea 2 1 1 0 2
16 Cenicero 2 1 1 0 2
17 Vianés 2 1 3 -2 0
18 River Ebro 3 1 10 -9 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Predictions