Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Avance Ezcabarte vs Cantolagua

Avance Ezcabarte vs Cantolagua Statistics & Analysis

Avance Ezcabarte Avance Ezcabarte
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30
4 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 47%
Cantolagua Cantolagua
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Avance Ezcabarte Avance Ezcabarte ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11254812

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Avance Ezcabarte win · Avance Ezcabarte 4–1 Cantolagua
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
  • Fixture: Avance Ezcabarte vs Cantolagua
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Avance Ezcabarte 1.41 — Cantolagua 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Izarra 6 6 0 0 18
2 Mutilvera 6 4 2 0 14
3 Beti Kozkor 6 4 1 1 13
4 Gazte Berriak 6 4 1 1 13
5 Avance Ezcabarte 6 3 2 1 11
6 Aoiz 6 2 3 1 9
7 Subiza 5 2 1 2 7
8 San Juan 6 2 1 3 7
9 Doneztebe FT 6 1 3 2 6
10 Valle Egüés 6 1 3 2 6
11 Txantrea 6 1 3 2 6
12 Beti Onak 6 0 5 1 5
13 Cortes 6 1 2 3 5
14 Pamplona 6 0 4 2 4
15 Huarte 6 0 4 2 4
16 Bidezarra 5 0 3 2 3
17 Cantolagua 5 1 0 4 3
18 Cirbonero 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Izarra 6 20 3 +17 18
2 Avance Ezcabarte 6 11 4 +7 11
3 Subiza 5 11 8 +3 7
4 Doneztebe FT 6 11 8 +3 6
5 San Juan 6 9 8 +1 7
6 Valle Egüés 6 9 10 -1 6
7 Mutilvera 6 8 1 +7 14
8 Beti Kozkor 6 8 4 +4 13
9 Gazte Berriak 6 8 4 +4 13
10 Aoiz 6 5 3 +2 9
11 Beti Onak 6 5 8 -3 5
12 Huarte 6 4 7 -3 4
13 Txantrea 6 4 9 -5 6
14 Pamplona 6 3 5 -2 4
15 Bidezarra 5 3 9 -6 3
16 Cantolagua 5 3 15 -12 3
17 Cortes 6 2 8 -6 5
18 Cirbonero 5 1 11 -10 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Predictions