Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Cortes vs Izarra

Cortes vs Izarra Statistics & Analysis

Cortes Cortes
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 63%
Izarra Izarra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Izarra Izarra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11245492

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Izarra win · Cortes 0–2 Izarra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
  • Fixture: Cortes vs Izarra
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Cortes 1.13 — Izarra 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Izarra 6 6 0 0 18
2 Mutilvera 6 4 2 0 14
3 Beti Kozkor 6 4 1 1 13
4 Gazte Berriak 6 4 1 1 13
5 Avance Ezcabarte 6 3 2 1 11
6 Aoiz 6 2 3 1 9
7 Subiza 5 2 1 2 7
8 San Juan 6 2 1 3 7
9 Doneztebe FT 6 1 3 2 6
10 Valle Egüés 6 1 3 2 6
11 Txantrea 6 1 3 2 6
12 Beti Onak 6 0 5 1 5
13 Cortes 6 1 2 3 5
14 Pamplona 6 0 4 2 4
15 Huarte 6 0 4 2 4
16 Bidezarra 5 0 3 2 3
17 Cantolagua 5 1 0 4 3
18 Cirbonero 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Izarra 6 20 3 +17 18
2 Avance Ezcabarte 6 11 4 +7 11
3 Subiza 5 11 8 +3 7
4 Doneztebe FT 6 11 8 +3 6
5 San Juan 6 9 8 +1 7
6 Valle Egüés 6 9 10 -1 6
7 Mutilvera 6 8 1 +7 14
8 Beti Kozkor 6 8 4 +4 13
9 Gazte Berriak 6 8 4 +4 13
10 Aoiz 6 5 3 +2 9
11 Beti Onak 6 5 8 -3 5
12 Huarte 6 4 7 -3 4
13 Txantrea 6 4 9 -5 6
14 Pamplona 6 3 5 -2 4
15 Bidezarra 5 3 9 -6 3
16 Cantolagua 5 3 15 -12 3
17 Cortes 6 2 8 -6 5
18 Cirbonero 5 1 11 -10 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Predictions