Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Bidezarra vs Beti Onak

Bidezarra vs Beti Onak Statistics & Analysis

Bidezarra Bidezarra
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Beti Onak Beti Onak
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bidezarra Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11245491

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bidezarra 1–1 Beti Onak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
  • Fixture: Bidezarra vs Beti Onak
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Bidezarra 1.33 — Beti Onak 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Izarra 5 5 0 0 15
2 Beti Kozkor 5 3 1 1 10
3 Aoiz 5 2 3 0 9
4 Avance Ezcabarte 5 2 2 1 8
5 Mutilvera 4 2 2 0 8
6 Subiza 5 2 1 2 7
7 San Juan 5 2 1 2 7
8 Gazte Berriak 4 2 1 1 7
9 Doneztebe FT 4 1 2 1 5
10 Beti Onak 5 0 5 0 5
11 Valle Egüés 5 1 2 2 5
12 Txantrea 5 1 2 2 5
13 Huarte 5 0 4 1 4
14 Pamplona 5 0 4 1 4
15 Cortes 5 1 1 3 4
16 Bidezarra 5 0 3 2 3
17 Cantolagua 5 1 0 4 3
18 Cirbonero 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Izarra 5 18 2 +16 15
2 Subiza 5 11 8 +3 7
3 Avance Ezcabarte 5 10 4 +6 8
4 Doneztebe FT 4 10 6 +4 5
5 San Juan 5 9 7 +2 7
6 Valle Egüés 5 8 9 -1 5
7 Aoiz 5 5 2 +3 9
8 Beti Kozkor 5 5 4 +1 10
9 Gazte Berriak 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Beti Onak 5 5 5 0 5
11 Huarte 5 4 5 -1 4
12 Txantrea 5 4 9 -5 5
13 Mutilvera 4 3 1 +2 8
14 Bidezarra 5 3 9 -6 3
15 Cantolagua 5 3 15 -12 3
16 Pamplona 5 2 3 -1 4
17 Cortes 5 2 8 -6 4
18 Cirbonero 4 1 7 -6 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Predictions