Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Aoiz vs Doneztebe FT

Aoiz vs Doneztebe FT Statistics & Analysis

Aoiz Aoiz
Sep 11, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
⚽
Doneztebe FT
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Doneztebe FT Aoiz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7038510

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aoiz win · Aoiz 2–0 Doneztebe FT
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
  • Fixture: Aoiz vs Doneztebe FT
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Aoiz 1.29 — Doneztebe FT 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Izarra 4 4 0 0 12
2 Mutilvera 4 2 2 0 8
3 Gazte Berriak 4 2 1 1 7
4 Beti Kozkor 4 2 1 1 7
5 Aoiz 4 1 3 0 6
6 Doneztebe FT 4 1 2 1 5
7 Avance Ezcabarte 4 1 2 1 5
8 Txantrea 4 1 2 1 5
9 Subiza 3 1 1 1 4
10 San Juan 4 1 1 2 4
11 Beti Onak 4 0 4 0 4
12 Cortes 4 1 1 2 4
13 Huarte 4 0 3 1 3
14 Pamplona 4 0 3 1 3
15 Cantolagua 3 1 0 2 3
16 Valle Egüés 3 0 2 1 2
17 Cirbonero 3 0 2 1 2
18 Bidezarra 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Izarra 4 16 2 +14 12
2 Doneztebe FT 4 10 6 +4 5
3 Subiza 3 8 6 +2 4
4 San Juan 4 7 6 +1 4
5 Avance Ezcabarte 4 6 3 +3 5
6 Gazte Berriak 4 5 4 +1 7
7 Valle Egüés 3 5 8 -3 2
8 Aoiz 4 4 2 +2 6
9 Beti Onak 4 4 4 0 4
10 Huarte 4 4 5 -1 3
11 Txantrea 4 4 7 -3 5
12 Mutilvera 4 3 1 +2 8
13 Beti Kozkor 4 3 4 -1 7
14 Pamplona 4 2 3 -1 3
15 Cortes 4 2 6 -4 4
16 Cantolagua 3 2 8 -6 3
17 Bidezarra 4 2 8 -6 2
18 Cirbonero 3 1 5 -4 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Predictions