Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / CD Zafra vs Montijo

CD Zafra vs Montijo Statistics & Analysis

⚽
CD Zafra
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:15
1 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 85%
Montijo Montijo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Montijo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13193090

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CD Zafra 1–1 Montijo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: CD Zafra vs Montijo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): CD Zafra 1.28 — Montijo 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Azuaga 6 5 0 1 15
2 Moralo 6 4 2 0 14
3 Llerenense 5 4 1 0 13
4 Castuera 5 4 0 1 12
5 Villanovense 6 3 1 2 10
6 Puebla Calzada 6 2 2 2 8
7 CD Zafra 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gévora 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jerez 5 2 1 2 7
10 Montijo 6 2 1 3 7
11 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6
12 Cabeza Buey 6 1 3 2 6
13 Villafranca 5 2 0 3 6
14 Jaraíz 6 1 2 3 5
15 Quintana 5 1 2 2 5
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 6 0 3 3 3
17 Plasencia 5 0 2 3 2
18 Guadiana 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Azuaga 6 14 4 +10 15
2 Castuera 5 13 3 +10 12
3 Moralo 6 12 6 +6 14
4 Puebla Calzada 6 9 7 +2 8
5 Gévora 6 9 11 -2 8
6 Jerez 5 8 7 +1 7
7 Villanovense 6 7 4 +3 10
8 Villafranca 5 7 8 -1 6
9 Montijo 6 7 9 -2 7
10 CD Zafra 5 6 4 +2 8
11 Santa Amalia 5 6 5 +1 6
12 Cabeza Buey 6 6 6 0 6
13 Jaraíz 6 6 9 -3 5
14 Llerenense 5 5 1 +4 13
15 Atlético Pueblonuevo 6 5 15 -10 3
16 Guadiana 6 3 15 -12 1
17 Quintana 5 2 5 -3 5
18 Plasencia 5 2 8 -6 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Predictions