Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Azuaga vs Guadiana

Azuaga vs Guadiana Statistics & Analysis

Azuaga Azuaga
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:15
4 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 36%
⚽
Guadiana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Azuaga Azuaga ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11684368

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Azuaga win · Azuaga 4–0 Guadiana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: Azuaga vs Guadiana
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Azuaga 1.46 — Guadiana 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Azuaga 4 4 0 0 12
2 Moralo 4 3 1 0 10
3 Llerenense 4 3 1 0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 9
5 Puebla Calzada 5 2 2 1 8
6 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 7
7 Gévora 4 2 1 1 7
8 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 6
9 Villanovense 4 2 0 2 6
10 Cabeza Buey 4 1 1 2 4
11 Jaraíz 4 1 1 2 4
12 Jerez 4 1 1 2 4
13 Quintana 4 1 1 2 4
14 Villafranca 4 1 0 3 3
15 Montijo 4 1 0 3 3
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 3
17 Guadiana 4 0 1 3 1
18 Plasencia 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Azuaga 4 10 2 +8 12
2 Castuera 4 8 3 +5 9
3 Moralo 4 8 4 +4 10
4 Puebla Calzada 5 8 4 +4 8
5 Gévora 4 7 8 -1 7
6 Jaraíz 4 6 7 -1 4
7 Santa Amalia 4 5 2 +3 6
8 CD Zafra 4 5 3 +2 7
9 Cabeza Buey 4 5 5 0 4
10 Atlético Pueblonuevo 5 5 10 -5 3
11 Villanovense 4 4 3 +1 6
12 Jerez 4 4 6 -2 4
13 Villafranca 4 4 7 -3 3
14 Montijo 4 4 8 -4 3
15 Llerenense 4 3 0 +3 10
16 Quintana 4 2 5 -3 4
17 Guadiana 4 2 7 -5 1
18 Plasencia 4 2 8 -6 1