Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Plasencia vs Puebla Calzada

Plasencia vs Puebla Calzada Statistics & Analysis

Plasencia Plasencia
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 42%
Puebla Calzada Puebla Calzada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Plasencia Puebla Calzada ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8691267

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puebla Calzada win · Plasencia 0–3 Puebla Calzada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: Plasencia vs Puebla Calzada
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Plasencia 1.39 — Puebla Calzada 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Azuaga 3 3 0 0 9
2 Moralo 3 3 0 0 9
3 Llerenense 3 3 0 0 9
4 Puebla Calzada 3 2 1 0 7
5 Castuera 3 2 0 1 6
6 CD Zafra 3 2 0 1 6
7 Santa Amalia 3 1 2 0 5
8 Jerez 3 1 1 1 4
9 Gévora 3 1 1 1 4
10 Cabeza Buey 3 1 0 2 3
11 Villanovense 3 1 0 2 3
12 Montijo 3 1 0 2 3
13 Villafranca 3 1 0 2 3
14 Atlético Pueblonuevo 3 0 2 1 2
15 Jaraíz 3 0 1 2 1
16 Quintana 3 0 1 2 1
17 Plasencia 3 0 1 2 1
18 Guadiana 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Azuaga 3 8 2 +6 9
2 Puebla Calzada 3 7 2 +5 7
3 Moralo 3 7 3 +4 9
4 Castuera 3 7 3 +4 6
5 CD Zafra 3 5 3 +2 6
6 Santa Amalia 3 4 1 +3 5
7 Jerez 3 4 4 0 4
8 Cabeza Buey 3 4 4 0 3
9 Montijo 3 4 6 -2 3
10 Jaraíz 3 4 6 -2 1
11 Gévora 3 4 7 -3 4
12 Atlético Pueblonuevo 3 4 7 -3 2
13 Llerenense 3 3 0 +3 9
14 Villafranca 3 3 5 -2 3
15 Villanovense 3 2 3 -1 3
16 Plasencia 3 2 7 -5 1
17 Guadiana 3 1 6 -5 0
18 Quintana 3 0 4 -4 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Predictions