Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Moralo vs Villanovense

Moralo vs Villanovense Statistics & Analysis

Moralo Moralo
Sep 06, 2026 - 10:30
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Villanovense Villanovense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Moralo Moralo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6368914

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Moralo win · Moralo 2–1 Villanovense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: Moralo vs Villanovense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Moralo 1.38 — Villanovense 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castuera 1 1 0 0 3
2 Azuaga 1 1 0 0 3
3 Cabeza Buey 1 1 0 0 3
4 Moralo 1 1 0 0 3
5 CD Zafra 1 1 0 0 3
6 Llerenense 1 1 0 0 3
7 Villafranca 2 1 0 1 3
8 Atlético Pueblonuevo 1 0 1 0 1
9 Jaraíz 1 0 1 0 1
10 Jerez 1 0 1 0 1
11 Puebla Calzada 1 0 1 0 1
12 Plasencia 1 0 1 0 1
13 Santa Amalia 1 0 1 0 1
14 Villanovense 1 0 0 1 0
15 Quintana 1 0 0 1 0
16 Montijo 1 0 0 1 0
17 Guadiana 2 0 0 2 0
18 Gévora 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castuera 1 5 0 +5 3
2 Azuaga 1 4 1 +3 3
3 Villafranca 2 4 4 0 3
4 Cabeza Buey 1 3 1 +2 3
5 Moralo 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Atlético Pueblonuevo 1 2 2 0 1
7 Jaraíz 1 2 2 0 1
8 Jerez 1 2 2 0 1
9 Puebla Calzada 1 2 2 0 1
10 CD Zafra 1 1 0 +1 3
11 Llerenense 1 1 0 +1 3
12 Villanovense 1 1 2 -1 0
13 Montijo 1 1 3 -2 0
14 Plasencia 1 0 0 0 1
15 Santa Amalia 1 0 0 0 1
16 Quintana 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Guadiana 2 0 4 -4 0
18 Gévora 1 0 5 -5 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Predictions