Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla

Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla Statistics & Analysis

Unión Molinense Unión Molinense
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.51
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 49%
Alcantarilla Alcantarilla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Unión Molinense Unión Molinense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13231195

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Unión Molinense win · Unión Molinense 3–0 Alcantarilla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
  • Fixture: Unión Molinense vs Alcantarilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Unión Molinense 1.51 — Alcantarilla 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santomera 6 5 1 0 16
2 Unión Molinense 6 3 2 1 11
3 San Javier 5 3 2 0 11
4 Santa Cruz 6 2 3 1 9
5 Alcantarilla 6 2 3 1 9
6 Atlético Pulpileño 6 2 2 2 8
7 Olímpico Totana 5 2 2 1 8
8 SFC Minerva 5 2 2 1 8
9 Bala Azul 6 2 2 2 8
10 Cartagena LU II 6 2 2 2 8
11 Cotillas CD 6 2 1 3 7
12 UCAM Murcia II 5 1 2 2 5
13 Bullas Deportivo 5 1 2 2 5
14 Águilas II 5 0 5 0 5
15 Los Garres 5 1 2 2 5
16 Algar 5 1 0 4 3
17 Balsicas Atlético 5 1 0 4 3
18 Mazarrón FC 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santomera 6 14 6 +8 16
2 Unión Molinense 6 13 8 +5 11
3 Santa Cruz 6 9 8 +1 9
4 Cartagena LU II 6 9 10 -1 8
5 San Javier 5 8 5 +3 11
6 UCAM Murcia II 5 8 6 +2 5
7 Atlético Pulpileño 6 8 7 +1 8
8 Bullas Deportivo 5 7 6 +1 5
9 Bala Azul 6 7 7 0 8
10 Cotillas CD 6 7 9 -2 7
11 Olímpico Totana 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Alcantarilla 6 5 5 0 9
13 Águilas II 5 5 5 0 5
14 Mazarrón FC 5 5 9 -4 1
15 Los Garres 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SFC Minerva 5 3 2 +1 8
17 Algar 5 3 10 -7 3
18 Balsicas Atlético 5 2 10 -8 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions