Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera

Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Pulpileño Atlético Pulpileño
Oct 04, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.42
3 1.18
xG Accuracy: 52%
Santomera Santomera
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Pulpileño Santomera ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659262

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Santomera win · Atlético Pulpileño 2–3 Santomera
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
  • Fixture: Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Pulpileño 1.42 — Santomera 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santomera 4 3 1 0 10
2 Atlético Pulpileño 4 2 2 0 8
3 Alcantarilla 4 2 2 0 8
4 San Javier 4 2 2 0 8
5 Unión Molinense 4 2 1 1 7
6 UCAM Murcia II 4 1 2 1 5
7 Bullas Deportivo 4 1 2 1 5
8 Santa Cruz 4 1 2 1 5
9 Olímpico Totana 4 1 2 1 5
10 Los Garres 4 1 2 1 5
11 Bala Azul 4 1 2 1 5
12 SFC Minerva 4 1 2 1 5
13 Cartagena LU II 4 1 2 1 5
14 Águilas II 4 0 4 0 4
15 Cotillas CD 4 1 1 2 4
16 Balsicas Atlético 4 1 0 3 3
17 Mazarrón FC 4 0 1 3 1
18 Algar 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unión Molinense 4 9 7 +2 7
2 Santomera 4 8 4 +4 10
3 UCAM Murcia II 4 8 5 +3 5
4 San Javier 4 7 5 +2 8
5 Santa Cruz 4 7 7 0 5
6 Bullas Deportivo 4 5 3 +2 5
7 Olímpico Totana 4 5 5 0 5
8 Cartagena LU II 4 5 6 -1 5
9 Cotillas CD 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Mazarrón FC 4 5 8 -3 1
11 Atlético Pulpileño 4 4 1 +3 8
12 Alcantarilla 4 4 1 +3 8
13 Los Garres 4 4 4 0 5
14 Águilas II 4 4 4 0 4
15 Bala Azul 4 3 3 0 5
16 SFC Minerva 4 2 2 0 5
17 Balsicas Atlético 4 2 7 -5 3
18 Algar 4 1 9 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions