Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva

Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva Statistics & Analysis

Mazarrón FC Mazarrón FC
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 64%
SFC Minerva SFC Minerva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mazarrón FC SFC Minerva ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11682506

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SFC Minerva win · Mazarrón FC 0–1 SFC Minerva
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
  • Fixture: Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Mazarrón FC 1.51 — SFC Minerva 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santomera 6 5 1 0 16
2 San Javier 6 4 2 0 14
3 Unión Molinense 6 3 2 1 11
4 Santa Cruz 6 2 3 1 9
5 Alcantarilla 6 2 3 1 9
6 UCAM Murcia II 6 2 2 2 8
7 Águilas II 6 1 5 0 8
8 Atlético Pulpileño 6 2 2 2 8
9 Bala Azul 6 2 2 2 8
10 Olímpico Totana 6 2 2 2 8
11 Los Garres 6 2 2 2 8
12 Cartagena LU II 6 2 2 2 8
13 SFC Minerva 6 2 2 2 8
14 Cotillas CD 6 2 1 3 7
15 Balsicas Atlético 6 2 0 4 6
16 Bullas Deportivo 6 1 2 3 5
17 Algar 6 1 0 5 3
18 Mazarrón FC 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santomera 6 14 6 +8 16
2 UCAM Murcia II 6 13 7 +6 8
3 Unión Molinense 6 13 8 +5 11
4 San Javier 6 11 5 +6 14
5 Santa Cruz 6 9 8 +1 9
6 Cartagena LU II 6 9 10 -1 8
7 Atlético Pulpileño 6 8 7 +1 8
8 Bullas Deportivo 6 8 10 -2 5
9 Águilas II 6 7 5 +2 8
10 Bala Azul 6 7 7 0 8
11 Olímpico Totana 6 7 7 0 8
12 Cotillas CD 6 7 9 -2 7
13 Los Garres 6 6 6 0 8
14 Balsicas Atlético 6 6 11 -5 6
15 Mazarrón FC 6 6 14 -8 1
16 Alcantarilla 6 5 5 0 9
17 SFC Minerva 6 3 4 -1 8
18 Algar 6 3 13 -10 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions