Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Unión Molinense vs Mazarrón FC

Unión Molinense vs Mazarrón FC Statistics & Analysis

Unión Molinense Unión Molinense
Sep 27, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Mazarrón FC Mazarrón FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mazarrón FC Unión Molinense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10108281

Closing Odds 3.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Unión Molinense win · Unión Molinense 3–2 Mazarrón FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mazarrón FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mazarrón FC (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Unión Molinense (1X2) 34.2 36.5 -2.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 37.1 -7.4
Mazarrón FC (1X2) 36.1 26.4 +9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 39.9 +8.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 60.1 -8.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Mazarrón FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Unión Molinense (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.44 2.44 0.0
Mazarrón FC (1X2) 3.42 3.42 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
  • Fixture: Unión Molinense vs Mazarrón FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Unión Molinense 1.28 — Mazarrón FC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santomera 4 3 1 0 10
2 Atlético Pulpileño 4 2 2 0 8
3 Alcantarilla 4 2 2 0 8
4 San Javier 4 2 2 0 8
5 Unión Molinense 4 2 1 1 7
6 UCAM Murcia II 4 1 2 1 5
7 Bullas Deportivo 4 1 2 1 5
8 Santa Cruz 4 1 2 1 5
9 Olímpico Totana 4 1 2 1 5
10 Los Garres 4 1 2 1 5
11 Bala Azul 4 1 2 1 5
12 SFC Minerva 4 1 2 1 5
13 Cartagena LU II 4 1 2 1 5
14 Águilas II 4 0 4 0 4
15 Cotillas CD 4 1 1 2 4
16 Balsicas Atlético 4 1 0 3 3
17 Mazarrón FC 4 0 1 3 1
18 Algar 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unión Molinense 4 9 7 +2 7
2 Santomera 4 8 4 +4 10
3 UCAM Murcia II 4 8 5 +3 5
4 San Javier 4 7 5 +2 8
5 Santa Cruz 4 7 7 0 5
6 Bullas Deportivo 4 5 3 +2 5
7 Olímpico Totana 4 5 5 0 5
8 Cartagena LU II 4 5 6 -1 5
9 Cotillas CD 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Mazarrón FC 4 5 8 -3 1
11 Atlético Pulpileño 4 4 1 +3 8
12 Alcantarilla 4 4 1 +3 8
13 Los Garres 4 4 4 0 5
14 Águilas II 4 4 4 0 4
15 Bala Azul 4 3 3 0 5
16 SFC Minerva 4 2 2 0 5
17 Balsicas Atlético 4 2 7 -5 3
18 Algar 4 1 9 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions