Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 / Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando

Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando Statistics & Analysis

Lanzarote Lanzarote
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
UD San Fernando UD San Fernando
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13192594

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD San Fernando win · Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
  • Fixture: Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Lanzarote 1.2 — UD San Fernando 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Unión de Tenerife 5 4 0 1 12
2 San Miguel 5 3 1 1 10
3 Panadería Pulido 5 3 1 1 10
4 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 9
5 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 9
6 Las Palmas III 5 2 2 1 8
7 San Bartolomé 4 2 2 0 8
8 Marino 5 2 1 2 7
9 Tenerife C 5 2 1 2 7
10 Los Llanos 5 2 1 2 7
11 Estrella 5 2 1 2 7
12 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 6
13 Villa Santa Brígida 5 1 3 1 6
14 Unión Sur Yaiza 5 2 0 3 6
15 Anaza 5 1 1 3 4
16 Laguna de Duero 5 0 1 4 1
17 Villaverde Norte 5 0 1 4 1
18 Playas Sotavento 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panadería Pulido 5 14 11 +3 10
2 Marino 5 13 8 +5 7
3 UD San Fernando 4 11 2 +9 9
4 Tenerife C 5 10 9 +1 7
5 Las Palmas III 5 9 6 +3 8
6 Real Unión de Tenerife 5 8 3 +5 12
7 San Miguel 5 8 3 +5 10
8 San Bartolomé 4 7 4 +3 8
9 Estrella 5 7 9 -2 7
10 Unión Sur Yaiza 5 6 7 -1 6
11 Laguna de Duero 5 6 12 -6 1
12 Lanzarote 4 5 4 +1 6
13 Los Llanos 5 5 5 0 7
14 Villa Santa Brígida 5 5 5 0 6
15 Anaza 5 5 10 -5 4
16 Mensajero 4 4 2 +2 9
17 Villaverde Norte 5 4 12 -8 1
18 Playas Sotavento 5 3 18 -15 1