Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 / Real Unión de Tenerife vs Laguna de Duero

Real Unión de Tenerife vs Laguna de Duero Statistics & Analysis

Real Unión de Tenerife Real Unión de Tenerife
Oct 02, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Laguna de Duero Laguna de Duero
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Unión de Tenerife Real Unión de Tenerife ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10983712

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Unión de Tenerife win · Real Unión de Tenerife 1–0 Laguna de Duero
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
  • Fixture: Real Unión de Tenerife vs Laguna de Duero
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Real Unión de Tenerife 1.34 — Laguna de Duero 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 3 0 1 9
2 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 9
3 San Bartolomé 4 2 2 0 8
4 Las Palmas III 4 2 1 1 7
5 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 7
6 Panadería Pulido 4 2 1 1 7
7 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 7
8 UD San Fernando 3 2 0 1 6
9 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 6
10 Villa Santa Brígida 4 1 2 1 5
11 Marino 3 1 1 1 4
12 Estrella 3 1 1 1 4
13 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 4
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 0 1 3 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 1
18 Playas Sotavento 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panadería Pulido 4 10 8 +2 7
2 UD San Fernando 3 8 2 +6 6
3 Las Palmas III 4 8 5 +3 7
4 San Bartolomé 4 7 4 +3 8
5 San Miguel 4 6 3 +3 7
6 Marino 3 6 5 +1 4
7 Estrella 3 6 6 0 4
8 Tenerife C 4 6 8 -2 4
9 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 5 3 +2 9
10 Los Llanos 4 5 4 +1 7
11 Lanzarote 4 5 4 +1 6
12 Anaza 4 5 8 -3 4
13 Mensajero 4 4 2 +2 9
14 Villa Santa Brígida 4 4 4 0 5
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 3 8 -5 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 3 8 -5 1
18 Playas Sotavento 3 2 9 -7 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Predictions