Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 / Panadería Pulido vs Anaza

Panadería Pulido vs Anaza Statistics & Analysis

Panadería Pulido Panadería Pulido
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
5 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 30%
⚽
Anaza
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Panadería Pulido Panadería Pulido ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11223205

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Panadería Pulido win · Panadería Pulido 5–2 Anaza
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
  • Fixture: Panadería Pulido vs Anaza
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Panadería Pulido 1.4 — Anaza 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 3 0 1 9
2 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 9
3 San Bartolomé 4 2 2 0 8
4 Las Palmas III 4 2 1 1 7
5 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 7
6 Panadería Pulido 4 2 1 1 7
7 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 7
8 UD San Fernando 3 2 0 1 6
9 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 6
10 Villa Santa Brígida 4 1 2 1 5
11 Marino 3 1 1 1 4
12 Estrella 3 1 1 1 4
13 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 4
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 0 1 3 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 1
18 Playas Sotavento 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panadería Pulido 4 10 8 +2 7
2 UD San Fernando 3 8 2 +6 6
3 Las Palmas III 4 8 5 +3 7
4 San Bartolomé 4 7 4 +3 8
5 San Miguel 4 6 3 +3 7
6 Marino 3 6 5 +1 4
7 Estrella 3 6 6 0 4
8 Tenerife C 4 6 8 -2 4
9 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 5 3 +2 9
10 Los Llanos 4 5 4 +1 7
11 Lanzarote 4 5 4 +1 6
12 Anaza 4 5 8 -3 4
13 Mensajero 4 4 2 +2 9
14 Villa Santa Brígida 4 4 4 0 5
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 3 8 -5 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 3 8 -5 1
18 Playas Sotavento 3 2 9 -7 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Predictions