Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 / Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote

Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote Statistics & Analysis

Las Palmas III Las Palmas III
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Lanzarote Lanzarote
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Las Palmas III Lanzarote ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11254696

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lanzarote win · Las Palmas III 1–2 Lanzarote
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
  • Fixture: Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Las Palmas III 1.32 — Lanzarote 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 9
2 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 3 0 1 9
3 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 9
4 San Bartolomé 4 2 2 0 8
5 Marino 4 2 1 1 7
6 Las Palmas III 4 2 1 1 7
7 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 7
8 Panadería Pulido 4 2 1 1 7
9 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 7
10 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 6
11 Villa Santa Brígida 4 1 2 1 5
12 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 4
13 Estrella 4 1 1 2 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 4
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 0 1 3 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 1
18 Playas Sotavento 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Marino 4 12 6 +6 7
2 UD San Fernando 4 11 2 +9 9
3 Panadería Pulido 4 10 8 +2 7
4 Las Palmas III 4 8 5 +3 7
5 San Bartolomé 4 7 4 +3 8
6 San Miguel 4 6 3 +3 7
7 Tenerife C 4 6 8 -2 4
8 Estrella 4 6 9 -3 4
9 Real Unión de Tenerife 4 5 3 +2 9
10 Los Llanos 4 5 4 +1 7
11 Lanzarote 4 5 4 +1 6
12 Anaza 4 5 8 -3 4
13 Mensajero 4 4 2 +2 9
14 Villa Santa Brígida 4 4 4 0 5
15 Unión Sur Yaiza 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Laguna de Duero 4 3 8 -5 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 3 8 -5 1
18 Playas Sotavento 4 3 15 -12 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Predictions