Unión Sur Yaiza vs San Bartolomé Statistics & Analysis

Unión Sur Yaiza

Sep 11, 2026 - 19:00

0 1.28

1 1.32

xG Accuracy: 64%

San Bartolomé

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 San Bartolomé San Bartolomé ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7043296

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result San Bartolomé win · Unión Sur Yaiza 0–1 San Bartolomé

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Fixture: Unión Sur Yaiza vs San Bartolomé
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Unión Sur Yaiza 1.28 — San Bartolomé 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Las Palmas III	3	2	1	0	7
2	UD San Fernando	3	2	0	1	6
3	San Bartolomé	2	2	0	0	6
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	3	2	0	1	6
5	San Miguel	2	1	1	0	4
6	Marino	3	1	1	1	4
7	Estrella	3	1	1	1	4
8	Tenerife C	3	1	1	1	4
9	Los Llanos	3	1	1	1	4
10	Anaza	3	1	1	1	4
11	Villa Santa Brígida	3	1	1	1	4
12	Panadería Pulido	3	1	1	1	4
13	Mensajero	2	1	0	1	3
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	3	1	0	2	3
15	Lanzarote	2	0	2	0	2
16	Laguna de Duero	3	0	1	2	1
17	Villaverde Norte	3	0	1	2	1
18	Playas Sotavento	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	3	8	2	+6	6
2	Las Palmas III	3	7	3	+4	7
3	Marino	3	6	5	+1	4
4	Estrella	3	6	6	0	4
5	Tenerife C	3	6	6	0	4
6	San Bartolomé	2	5	2	+3	6
7	Panadería Pulido	3	5	6	-1	4
8	San Miguel	2	4	2	+2	4
9	Real Unión de Tenerife	3	4	3	+1	6
10	Los Llanos	3	4	4	0	4
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	3	4	5	-1	3
12	Anaza	3	3	3	0	4
13	Villa Santa Brígida	3	3	3	0	4
14	Laguna de Duero	3	3	7	-4	1
15	Lanzarote	2	2	2	0	2
16	Villaverde Norte	3	2	6	-4	1
17	Playas Sotavento	3	2	9	-7	1
18	Mensajero	2	1	1	0	3