Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 / Porreres vs Santanyí

Porreres vs Santanyí Statistics & Analysis

Porreres Porreres
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 64%
Santanyí Santanyí
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Porreres Santanyí ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11682362

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Santanyí win · Porreres 0–1 Santanyí
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
  • Fixture: Porreres vs Santanyí
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Porreres 1.42 — Santanyí 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manacor 5 5 0 0 15
2 Constància 5 3 1 1 10
3 Llosetense 5 3 1 1 10
4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 3 1 0 10
5 Platges Calvià 5 3 0 2 9
6 Porreres 4 3 0 1 9
7 Formentera 4 2 2 0 8
8 Cardassar 4 2 1 1 7
9 PE Sant Jordi 4 2 1 1 7
10 Alcúdia 4 2 0 2 6
11 Santanyí 4 1 3 0 6
12 Mercadal 5 1 2 2 5
13 Andratx 5 1 2 2 5
14 Binissalem 5 1 0 4 3
15 Arenal 5 1 0 4 3
16 Migjorn 5 1 0 4 3
17 Inter Ibiza 4 0 0 4 0
18 Sineu 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manacor 5 15 5 +10 15
2 Constància 5 9 3 +6 10
3 Platges Calvià 5 9 5 +4 9
4 Llosetense 5 8 3 +5 10
5 Alcúdia 4 8 5 +3 6
6 Formentera 4 7 2 +5 8
7 Porreres 4 7 5 +2 9
8 PE Sant Jordi 4 7 7 0 7
9 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 6 2 +4 10
10 Mercadal 5 6 7 -1 5
11 Binissalem 5 5 9 -4 3
12 Arenal 5 5 11 -6 3
13 Cardassar 4 4 2 +2 7
14 Santanyí 4 4 3 +1 6
15 Andratx 5 4 6 -2 5
16 Migjorn 5 4 12 -8 3
17 Sineu 5 3 14 -11 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 2 12 -10 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Predictions