Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 / Constància vs Alcúdia

Constància vs Alcúdia Statistics & Analysis

Constància Constància
Sep 26, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.57
0 1.03
xG Accuracy: 67%
Alcúdia Alcúdia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Constància Constància ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10116439

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Constància win · Constància 2–0 Alcúdia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Alcúdia (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Alcúdia (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Constància (1X2) 48.3 61.0 -12.7
Draw (1X2) 28.4 22.7 +5.7
Alcúdia (1X2) 23.3 16.3 +7.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.0 -6.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.0 +6.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.3% on Alcúdia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.3%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Constància (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.98 3.98 0.0
Alcúdia (1X2) 5.54 5.54 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
  • Fixture: Constància vs Alcúdia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Constància 1.57 — Alcúdia 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 3 1 0 10
2 Manacor 3 3 0 0 9
3 Porreres 4 3 0 1 9
4 Constància 4 2 1 1 7
5 PE Sant Jordi 3 2 1 0 7
6 Llosetense 4 2 1 1 7
7 Cardassar 4 2 1 1 7
8 Alcúdia 4 2 0 2 6
9 Platges Calvià 4 2 0 2 6
10 Santanyí 4 1 3 0 6
11 Formentera 3 1 2 0 5
12 Mercadal 4 1 2 1 5
13 Andratx 4 1 2 1 5
14 Arenal 4 1 0 3 3
15 Sineu 3 0 0 3 0
16 Binissalem 3 0 0 3 0
17 Migjorn 3 0 0 3 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manacor 3 9 3 +6 9
2 Alcúdia 4 8 5 +3 6
3 PE Sant Jordi 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Porreres 4 7 5 +2 9
5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Constància 4 6 2 +4 7
7 Platges Calvià 4 6 4 +2 6
8 Llosetense 4 5 2 +3 7
9 Mercadal 4 5 4 +1 5
10 Cardassar 4 4 2 +2 7
11 Formentera 3 4 2 +2 5
12 Santanyí 4 4 3 +1 6
13 Arenal 4 4 8 -4 3
14 Andratx 4 3 4 -1 5
15 Sineu 3 2 7 -5 0
16 Binissalem 3 2 8 -6 0
17 Migjorn 3 2 9 -7 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 2 12 -10 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Predictions