Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 / Manacor vs Binissalem

Manacor vs Binissalem Statistics & Analysis

Manacor Manacor
Sep 05, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 81%
Binissalem Binissalem
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Manacor Manacor ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6164479

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Manacor win · Manacor 2–1 Binissalem
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
  • Fixture: Manacor vs Binissalem
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Manacor 1.41 — Binissalem 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 3 1 0 10
2 Manacor 3 3 0 0 9
3 Porreres 4 3 0 1 9
4 Constància 4 2 1 1 7
5 PE Sant Jordi 3 2 1 0 7
6 Llosetense 4 2 1 1 7
7 Cardassar 4 2 1 1 7
8 Alcúdia 4 2 0 2 6
9 Platges Calvià 4 2 0 2 6
10 Santanyí 4 1 3 0 6
11 Formentera 3 1 2 0 5
12 Mercadal 4 1 2 1 5
13 Andratx 4 1 2 1 5
14 Arenal 4 1 0 3 3
15 Sineu 3 0 0 3 0
16 Binissalem 3 0 0 3 0
17 Migjorn 3 0 0 3 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manacor 3 9 3 +6 9
2 Alcúdia 4 8 5 +3 6
3 PE Sant Jordi 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Porreres 4 7 5 +2 9
5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Constància 4 6 2 +4 7
7 Platges Calvià 4 6 4 +2 6
8 Llosetense 4 5 2 +3 7
9 Mercadal 4 5 4 +1 5
10 Cardassar 4 4 2 +2 7
11 Formentera 3 4 2 +2 5
12 Santanyí 4 4 3 +1 6
13 Arenal 4 4 8 -4 3
14 Andratx 4 3 4 -1 5
15 Sineu 3 2 7 -5 0
16 Binissalem 3 2 8 -6 0
17 Migjorn 3 2 9 -7 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 2 12 -10 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Predictions